polling

At the Races: Is Iowa over yet?

By Bridget Bowman, Simone Pathé and Stephanie Akin 

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we’ll bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call team that will keep you informed about the 2020 election. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.

Illinois poll illustrates one challenge in campaign coverage
How results are released can influence whether polls are taken seriously

Rep. Daniel Lipinski, D-Ill., faces another competitive primary after winning a close race in 2018. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

While polling elections is a challenge, analyzing polls can be even more dangerous. I considered scrapping a couple days of reporting work on a survey memo on an upcoming Democratic primary, but decided to share what happened to provide a small window into how I digest polling.

Illinois Rep. Daniel Lipinski fended off a competitive challenge in the 2018 Democratic primary and recently released a poll that showed him with a 23-point lead in a 2020 rematch with Marie Newman. That felt like a stretch considering their 2-point race a couple years ago.

At the Races: Iowa still matters after Monday

By Stephanie Akin, Bridget Bowman and Simone Pathé 

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we’ll bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call team that will keep you informed about the 2020 election. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.

Capitol Ink | Rushing Ploy

Wildest Iowa caucus ever?
Political Theater, Episode 110

The Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses could see record turnout and a wild finish for delegates. (Al Drago/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Just a few days to go, and it’s anyone’s guess who will win the Iowa caucuses. What’s the biggest thing on Iowans’ minds as they decide among a jumbled contest among the Democrats? Impeachment? Electability? Personal likability?

The last time we spoke with caucus expert and political scientist David Redlawsk, he was just starting a six-monthlong sabbatical in Iowa. Amid the electoral hubbub of the Iowa State Fair in August, Redlawsk said Iowans were just not sure what to do with all these candidates, as more than 20 Democrats, and even some Republicans, made their cases in the Hawkeye State. 

With Iowa and New Hampshire still up in the air, Democratic race has 2016 echoes
Once impeachment is done, Democrats will have to deal with their divisions

Senators raise their hands as Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. administers the oath of the Senate Court of Impeachment Thursday. (Screenshot/Senate Recording Studio)

ANALYSIS — Sometime soon, the impeachment trial of Donald John Trump will likely end and the Senate, notwithstanding who might get called as a witness, will acquit him.

The president, of course, will claim victory and, having escaped punishment, will presumably return to doing what he has been doing for months — looking for ways to discredit Democrats, even if it involves help from foreign governments. The rest of us will also jump quickly from impeachment and back to the presidential race, hardly missing a beat.

House Democrats are making McConnell — not Trump — their new boogeyman
But presidential antics will inevitably trickle down to congressional races

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is increasingly being cast as a villain blocking Democratic legislation, especially by lawmakers running in districts won by President Donald Trump in 2016. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

While Democrats in Washington are attacking Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s management of the impeachment trial, it’s his role in blocking House-passed legislation that is getting the most campaign airtime so far this year.

The latest example, and a likely preview of what is to come, is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s announcement Monday of a seven-figure cable and online ad campaign focused on the Senate bottling up a bill intended to lower prescription drug prices.

At the Races: Trial vs. Trail

By Simone Pathé, Stephanie Akin and Bridget Bowman 

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we’ll bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call team that will keep you informed about the 2020 election. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.

Top Trump aide stops short of echoing boss’ claim that economy is ‘best it’s ever been’
But Lawrence Kudlow touts wage growth and low unemployment rate

Larry Kudlow, director of President Donald Trump’s National Economic Council, says the economy under Trump will “rank up there” with previous strong economies. (Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Donald Trump’s chief economic adviser on Friday stopped short of endorsing the president’s repeated claim that the U.S. economy is at its strongest point in the country’s history.

“In history? I think it’ll rank up there, yes,” Lawrence Kudlow told CQ Roll Call on Friday. But he notably did not say the U.S. economy is the strongest it’s ever been as his boss heads into what pollsters and strategists in both parties say could be a photo-finish election.

Capitol Ink | Virtual Reality