polling

DCCC Poll: Democrat Ahead in Key New York House Race
Upstate New York race in the 19th District is expected to be competitive

Rep. John Faso, R-N.Y., is a vulnerable incumbent in New York’s 19th District this election cycle. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Updated 2:29 p.m. | A poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee showed a hotly competitive race in New York’s 19th District, a top target for Democrats hoping to win back the House. 

Freshman Republican Rep. John J. Faso trailed Democratic lawyer Antonio Delgado by 7 points in the poll. Forty-nine percent of respondents supported Delgado, while 42 percent backed the incumbent.

Manchin, Morrisey Sweat Over West Virginia Voters in Heart of Trump Country
Senate campaigns in marquee race hit July Fourth parade circuit

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, left, shakes hands with Sen. Joe Manchin III before the start of a Fourth of July parade in Ripley, W.Va. (Sarah Silbiger/CQ Roll Call)

RIPLEY, W.Va. — It was just one of hundreds of handshakes, a momentary truce before the battle that will escalate after the July Fourth recess.

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, the Republican nominee for Senate, stood patiently waiting Wednesday for Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III to finish his conversation with a Gold Star mother.

Poll: Americans Support Roe v. Wade Decision by 2-to-1 Margin
Both men and women and all racial groups agree with 1973 SCOTUS decision to strike down restrictive state abortion laws

Pro-choice and pro-life demonstrators rally outside of the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday morning, June 20, 2016. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Men and women in the U.S. agree by a two-to-one margin with the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision to strike down state laws restricting access to abortion, a new poll found.

As President Donald Trump prepares to select his nominee next Monday to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy on the high court, the abortion issue has once again taken center stage in the nation’s political discourse.

Poll: Democrat Has Slight Lead in Frelinghuysen’s District
But voters in the district prefer Republican control of Congress, poll shows

New Jersey Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen announced in January that he would not seek a 13th term. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

A new poll shows New Jersey’s traditionally Republican 11th District in a near tie with the Democratic candidate holding a slight lead.

The Monmouth University poll released Wednesday showed Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill with the support of 40 percent of voters while Republican Assemblyman Jay Webber had 38 percent.

Malinowski Neck-and-Neck With Lance in Internal Poll
Clinton narrowly carried five-term GOP incumbent’s district in 2016

New Jersey Rep. Leonard Lance is a Democratic target this year. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

A new poll by New Jersey Democrat Tom Malinowski showed him narrowly leading five-term Republican Rep. Leonard Lance in the 7th District. 

Malinowski, the former assistant secretary of State for democracy, human rights and labor, led the incumbent, 47 percent to 45 percent, in the survey obtained first by Roll Call. Seven percent of likely voters were undecided. 

Poll: Mia Love Holds Slim Lead Over Salt Lake County Mayor
Utah GOP congresswoman is seeking a third term

Rep. Mia Love, R-Utah, is locked in a tight race with Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams for Utah's 4th District seat. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Rep. Mia Love had a slight edge on her Democratic opponent for Utah's 4th District seat, Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, in a new poll.

Registered voters in the district favored Love, a Republican seeking her third term, by 6 percentage points over McAdams, 45 percent to 39 percent, according to the Salt Lake Tribune-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll released Wednesday. Eight percent said they preferred someone else — even though no one else is on the ballot in November — and 8 percent remained undecided.

Opinion: Trump and the Case of the Missing 15 Percent
The president’s golden gut has told him to demonize immigrants, but where is that strategy leading?

When President Donald Trump boasted Monday night in South Carolina that he has “the greatest political instinct in 50 years,” he may have been forgetting who won election in 1968, Shapiro writes. (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

It was a trademark Donald Trump performance down to his invoking a race of sycophants with the typically vague formulation “Some people have said.” In his self-absorbed ramble at a Monday night South Carolina rally, Trump boasted, “Some people have said I have the greatest political instinct in 50 years.”

Of course, 50 years gets us right back to Richard Nixon.

Opinion: The Numbers Tell the Story — Tax Cuts Work
Recent economic data run counter to the media and Democrats‘ narrative

House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady, here with Republican lawmakers unveiling the GOP tax plan last September, says Americans have gone from asking “Where are the jobs?” to asking “Where are more workers?” (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Last October, not long before passage of the Republican tax cuts, Chuck Todd on “Meet the Press” argued over taxes with his guest, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.

“There has been no study that has been able to somehow reinforce this idea that tax cuts do translate to economic growth,” the NBC host said.

Analysis: Donald Trump’s No Good, Very Bad Week
‘I cannot think ... of a similar terrible week’ for any POTUS, veteran Republican says

President Donald Trump makes a remark to the media as he arrives for a House Republican caucus meeting at the Capitol on Tuesday. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The self-created child migrant crisis was bad enough for Donald Trump, but then he insulted a well-respected House Republican and refused to help leaders pass an immigration overhaul bill many feel is key to their re-election. Republicans reacted angrily, with one party veteran declaring this is Trump’s “Katrina moment.”

The president was riding high as Air Force One ferried him back from his summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un last week. Top aides planned a quiet Friday, wanting to ride the perceived momentum into the weekend. Then Trump, without the input of aides, walked out to the North Lawn to talk to Fox News anchor Steve Doocy and then other reporters.

Opinion: Back to the Future With Party ID
Spike in the generic ballot? Calm down and carry on

A voter casts his ballot in the Virginia primary at the Hillsboro Old Stone School in the Old Dominion State’s 10th District on June 12. More voters now identify as independents — not a positive trend for either party, Winston writes. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

It’s morning again in America. You grab your first cup of coffee, click to your favorite news site and are greeted by a new poll with a huge generic ballot spike in the congressional vote. What should your reaction be? Is it time to freak out, or calm down and assume the poll is an outlier?

The answer is neither. When a particular survey suddenly shows a significant shift in one direction or the other, political and media analysts and the public need to approach the data with caution. Before assuming there was a change in voter preference, we need to ask whether party identification in the survey also changed significantly, and if so, why.