Andy Barr

OPINION — A California congressman, born in Mexico, introduces a Republican colleague in America’s heartland to traditional Mexican hibiscus water while attending a Cinco de Mayo festival, like the one he started in his home district. Within 24 hours, they receive a classified defense briefing nearby at U.S. Strategic Command headquarters. In ways both lighthearted and serious, that’s how relationships are built under the Bipartisan Policy Center’s American Congressional Exchange program, or ACE.

Relationships are foundational. Just as it is hard to trust someone you don’t know, it’s also difficult to disparage a person with whom you’ve broken bread — or shared hibiscus water, eaten fried pickles or tasted olive oil on ice cream. And experiencing the world through the eyes and perspective of another is frequently illuminating.

Count the House races, and you’ll get a pretty good idea of whether the House will flip in the fall. No, you can’t be entirely certain how an individual toss-up contest is going to turn out in November. But you can arrive at a ballpark assessment of House changes right now by looking at three baskets of districts and how similar ones behaved in previous midterms.

There are 25 Republican House members representing districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 (up from 23 before Pennsylvania drew a new congressional map). Almost one-third of those members, eight, are retiring. Given the current political polarization, the normal midterm dynamic (which punishes the president’s party) and the added risk of losing open seats, it’s likely that most of those 25 GOP districts will flip party control.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is hitting the airwaves in four additional House races to defend Republicans in competitive contests.

The television ads, shared first with Roll Call, are part of a slate of positive issue spots boosting GOP incumbents in races from Maine to California. 

The conservative Americans for Prosperity is spending nearly $5 million on ads in three Senate races, including two seats that Republicans are trying to flip and one the GOP is defending.

The Koch brothers-backed group is launching television and digital ads against Democratic Sens. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Claire McCaskill of Missouri, and former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, who is running for Senate.

Republican Senate candidate Joe Arpaio’s campaign is in free fall with less than a week before Arizona’s primary, according to a published report. 

Chad Willems, Arpaio’s campaign manager for 20 years, is no longer involved in the regular operation of his Senate run, AZCentral reported.

Speaker Paul D. Ryan announced Tuesday night that he has removed Rep. Duncan Hunter from the three House committees he serves on after the California Republican was indicted for misuse of campaign funds. 

Hunter will be at least temporarily stripped of his assignments to the House Armed Services, Transportation and Infrastructure, and Education and the Workforce Committees. 

Former Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords is backing Rep. Leonard Lance in his bid for for a sixth term in New Jersey.

It’s a notable endorsement because it crosses party lines: Giffords, one of the nation’s leading gun control advocates and a former Democratic congresswoman from Arizona, vacated her seat in 2012 after she was shot in 2011 in an apparent assassination attempt.

Illinois Rep. Rodney Davis said he did not send a campaign field director to an event for his Democratic opponent that led to the staffer’s arrest.

Levi Lovell was charged on Wednesday with aggravated assault after crashing a fundraiser for Betsy Dirksen Londrigan and allegedly aggressively questioning the candidate and her husband while shooting video with his phone. 

A handful of Republican House members are among the largest contributors to a campaign to repeal California’s gas tax boost, one that could draw party voters to the polls in competitive congressional districts.

The seven lawmakers include House Speaker Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin and second-term Rep. Mimi Walters of California. They have contributed or loaned more than $1 million of the $2.2 million received by a group called “Yes on 6, Repeal the Gas Tax,” according to second-quarter state election reports filed July 31.

Rep. Andy Barr is getting flak for comparing his three terms in Congress to opponent Amy McGrath’s 20 years as a fighter pilot in a hotly contest campaign for Kentucky’s 6th Congressional district. 

"We both served our country,” Barr told the New York Times Thursday. “I’ve served in a position where ideas matter. My opponent has served her country in the military, where execution matters.”