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Health Care Vote Takes Away GOP’s Offensive Campaign Message
Repeal has been winning message, but GOP now has plan of its own to defend

Iowa Rep. Rod Blum, a Freedom Caucus member and Democratic target, voted for the health care bill. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

For nearly seven years, Republicans have run — and won — on the campaign promise to get rid of the 2010 health care law.

But now that House Republicans are on record on their own replacement plan, that unifying offensive message has faded, especially since some of their most vulnerable incumbents are at odds with leadership and the White House on what’s being touted as the party’s first major legislative victory this Congress.

Advocacy Group Targets 29 Republicans Ahead of Health Care Vote
American Action Network is making a final six-figure push in support of AHCA

American Action Network’s latest digital campaign targets Florida Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who has come out against leadership’s health care plan. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

An advocacy group with close ties to House leadership is launching a final push to pressure 29 Republicans to support the GOP health care plan ahead of an expected vote later this week.

Some of those lawmakers have indicated they won’s support the bill.

Blum Wins Iowa's 1st District House Seat
Vulnerable Republican holds district Democrats hoped to win

Rep. Rod Blum, R-Iowa., one of the most vulnerable incumbents, won re-election. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Incumbent Republican Rep. Rod Blum is leading against Democratic challenger Monica Vernon in Iowa’s 1st District, the Associated Press projects.

Blum led Vernon 54 percent to 46 percent with 87 percent of precincts reporting.

How Many House Seats Will Democrats Pick Up? Watch These Districts
Certain district types may provide early clues

Democrats need to knock off Republicans who sit in seats President Barack Obama won, like Maine Rep. Bruce Poliquin, R-Maine, center, and Frank Guinta, R-N.H., right. Defeating Rep. Scott Tipton, R-Colo., would suggest more of a wave. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Not all districts are created equal. They all count the same when adding for a majority, but victories in one type of district may portend a much better night for Democrats than in others. With just four days to go until Election Day, Democrats almost surely won’t gain the 30 seats needed for a House majority on Tuesday. But they will make some gains. Here’s where to watch for early clues as to just how big or small Democratic gains will be.

To achieve double-digit gains, Democrats must win the known battlegrounds. These are the districts that always were going to be competitive, and where presidential year turnout usually gives Democrats an advantage. At the very least, Democrats need to win the districts that President Barack Obama carried — places like Illinois’ 10th District, Nevada’s 4th and 3rd Districts, Maine’s 2nd District, Florida’s 26th District, (which is now even more Democratic), Iowa’s 1st District and New York’s 19th District. If they’re not able to win these seats, Democratic gains in the House will likely be very minimal.  

Clinton Super PAC Steps Into Iowa House Race
In first House ad, Priorities USA ties Rod Blum to Donald Trump

The super PAC aligned with Hillary Clinton is entering a House race for the first time, targeting Iowa Rep. Rod Blum. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

For much of this year, Iowa 1st District Rep. Rod Blum was at the top of Roll Call’s list of the most vulnerable House incumbents. Until earlier this month, when he wasn’t

Now the super PAC aligned with Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign is setting its sights on the Republican freshman in its first foray into a House race, The Washington Post’s Paul Kane first reported Wednesday morning. 

Ratings Change: 5 House Races Shift Toward Democrats
But Democrats are still waiting for wave required to win majority

The good news for Republicans is that the bottom hasn’t fallen out from underneath their down-ballot candidates. The bad news is that there are still nearly three weeks left before Election Day, and 24 hours in each day for Donald Trump to torpedo the party’s chances of holding the House.

District-level polling after the release of the 2005 “Access Hollywood” video and the second debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton showed some vulnerability for Republicans, particularly in suburban districts. But we didn’t see a widespread cratering of GOP candidates in the competitive districts or evidence that the number of competitive seats is increasing dramatically.

GOP Poll: Rod Blum Leads Monica Vernon in Iowa
Blum has been one of this year's most vulnerable incumbents

Iowa Rep. Rod Blum, right, holds a double-digit lead over his Democratic challenger, according to a new internal poll. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Internal polling from Rep. Rod Blum's campaign showed the Iowa Republican leading his Democratic challenger Monica Vernon 52 percent to 36 percent among registered voters in the Hawkeye State's 1st District. 

Blum's 16-point edge represents an increase from an internal poll from August that showed him ahead 50 to 43 percent. 

Ghost of Boehner Haunts Blum in Iowa
Vulnerable member looks for more from establishment GOP after slighting then-speaker in vote

Rod Blum will face Democrat Monica Vernon in November. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Sitting in a district that President Barack Obama twice carried by double digits, Iowa Rep. Rod Blum may be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent this year.  

He's facing Democrat Monica Vernon, who won the Democratic primary in Iowa's 1st District Tuesday night . The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call rates the seat Tilts Democratic .   

Democrats Set to Take on Vulnerable Iowa Republicans
Monica Vernon and Jim Mowrer Win Democratic House nods

Monica Vernon won the Democratic nod in Iowa's 1st District and will face off against GOP Rep. Rod Blum. (Al Drago/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Democrats need to win two competitive seats in Iowa to hope to make a dent in their 30-seat deficit in the House.   

And they now have their candidates. In Iowa's 1st District, Monica Vernon will face off against freshman GOP Rep. Rod Blum in November.   

First GOP Incumbent to Fall on Busy Primary Day
One of North Carolina's Republican members will lose on Tuesday

Rep. Renee Ellmers, R-N.C., left, arrives for a House Republican Conference meeting in October. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Tuesday will be a busy day for congressional candidates, with primaries in four states.  

No matter what, the first GOP incumbent of the year will lose.