open-seat

NRCC Cuts off Coffman in Colorado, Boosts Salazar in Florida
GOP’s prospects of holding Ros-Lehtinen’s seat appear to have improved

Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., is facing a tough re-election in Colorado’s 6th District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The House Republicans’ campaign arm on Friday cut its reservation in what’s long been one of the most competitive districts in the country and redirected that money, plus some more, to a Florida district that wasn’t expected to be seriously in play several months ago.

The National Republican Campaign Committee cut a $1 million reservation in Colorado’s 6th District, where GOP Rep. Mike Coffman is running for re-election. A perennial Democratic target, Coffman has proved elusive in past cycles. But running against veteran Jason Crow in a favorable national environment for Democrats, he looks to be in trouble this year. Inside Elections With Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Tilts Democratic

2 New Polls Tell Different Stories in Open Michigan Seat
More than a quarter of voters still undecided in GOP survey

Michigan Rep. Dave Trott isn’t running for re-election. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Two new partisan polls of the open-seat race in Michigan’s 11th District, where Republican Rep. Dave Trott is not seeking re-election, tell slightly different stories about the contest. 

Polling conducted for the GOP nominee, businesswoman Lena Epstein, and the National Republican Congressional Committee showed a neck-and-neck race with the Democrat narrowly ahead and more than a quarter of voters still undecided. 

Words and Deeds Can Come Back to Haunt Incumbents in Tight Races
Yoder, McCaskill and others face attacks on past votes, policy positions

Rep. Kevin Yoder, R-Kan., now finds himself in a “Tilts Democratic” race in Kansas’ 3rd District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Incumbency comes with benefits, but in a throw-the-bums-out kind of year, it also offers sitting lawmakers one potential major disadvantage on the campaign trail: a voting record on Capitol Hill.

Political opponents can, and do, weaponize one vote, one position on a hot-button policy such as health care, tax or immigration. They might target a pattern of partisanship or, more importantly this year, support for an unpopular president.

Taylor Swift Plugs Midterm Elections Again at American Music Awards
Vote.org saw registration spike following earlier Instagram post

Taylor Swift accepts the Artist of the Year award onstage during the 2018 American Music Awards at Microsoft Theater on October 9, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Frederick M. Brown/Getty Images)

Without mentioning any candidates or a party affiliation, music superstar Taylor Swift continued her push to get Americans energized for the midterms.

Taylor Swift made her latest plea Tuesday night while accepting the award for Artist of the Year at the American Music Awards, a fan-judged awards show.

New Ad Knocks California Republican Diane Harkey on Offshore Drilling
League of Conservation Voters is targeting GOP nominee for Issa seat

Republican Diane Harkey faces Democrat Mike Levin in California’s 49th District. (Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The campaign arm of the League of Conservation Voters is launching a new television ad targeting Republican Diane Harkey on offshore drilling in an open-seat race in Southern California. 

Harkey, an elected member the California State Board of Equalization that oversees taxation, faces environmental lawyer Mike Levin for the 49th District seat that longtime GOP Rep. Darrell Issa is vacating.

Yvette Herrell Holds Slim Lead in New Mexico Open Seat Race, Republican Poll Finds
Democrat Xochitl Torres-Small hopes to ride enthusiasm wave to capture Republican-leaning district

Republican Yvette Herrell is running for an open seat in New Mexico’s 2nd District. (Courtesy photo/National Republican Congressional Committee)

A poll conducted for Republican Yvette Herrell released Friday found she holds a slight lead over Democrat Xochitl Torres-Small in the race for an open seat in New Mexico’s 2nd District. 

Herrell led 49 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error and 6 percent still undecided, according to a telephone survey of 400 likely voters from The Tarrance Group. The poll was conducted September 30 through October 2 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

GOP Super PAC Launches New Ad in Washington’s 8th District
Congressional Leadership Fund is attacking Democrat Kim Schrier

Republican Dino Rossi is running against Democrat Kim Schrier in Washington’s 8th District. (D.A. Banks/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The super PAC tied to House Republican leadership is launching a new ad aimed at Democrat Kim Schrier in the competitive open-seat race in Washington’s 8th District. 

Congressional Leadership Fund’s latest ad, provided first to Roll Call, knocks Schrier’s support for a state income tax — citing a candidate questionnaire — and an energy tax. If elected to Congress, she would not have influence over taxes administered by the state government.

House GOP Moving Right, Democratic Direction Less Clear
With pragmatists in fewer supply among Republicans, conference will be in less of a mood to compromise

The retirement of pragmatic Republicans like Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., threatens to move the House Republican Conference further to the right. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

ANALYSIS — We don’t know exactly how many House seats Democrats will gain in November, though Democratic control of the chamber next year looks almost inevitable. But even now it is clear that the midterm results will move Republicans further to the right. Where the Democrats will stand is less clear.

In the House, GOP losses will be disproportionately large in the suburbs and among members of the Republican Main Street Partnership, the House GOP group that puts “country over party” and values “compromise over conflict,” according to its website.

Minnesota Democrats Steer Clear of Republicans’ Controversial Comments About Women
Jason Lewis and Jim Hagedorn have both been attacked in past races for their comments

Jim Hagedorn, the GOP nominee in Minnesota’s open 1st District, said things he wrote about on his political blog have been well-publicized in all his previous races, but that he’s worked to get known in the district for who he is. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

NEW PRAGUE, Minn. — A Minnesota Republican congressman once called young, single women “non-thinking.” Another GOP candidate once referred to Washington state’s female senators as “bimbos.”

But don’t expect their Democratic opponents to make hay of those old remarks this year. That’s a change from 2016, and perhaps a surprising one, given that in today’s national environment, Democratic women are energized like never before.

Are Minnesota’s Trump Voters Looking for a Check on Him?
Dan Feehan and Jim Hagedorn have different ideas of what Trump voters want

Jim Hagedorn, the Republican candidate for Minnesota’s 1st District, campaigns in the Applefest parade in La Crescent on Sept. 16. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

MANKATO, Minn. — With his portrait framed on the wall, President Donald Trump watches over Jim Hagedorn’s subterranean campaign office here.

Trump’s strong showing in this southern Minnesota district is the reason the open seat is one of Republicans’ few pickup opportunities this year.