polling

Analysis: Donald Trump’s No Good, Very Bad Week
‘I cannot think ... of a similar terrible week’ for any POTUS, veteran Republican says

President Donald Trump makes a remark to the media as he arrives for a House Republican caucus meeting at the Capitol on Tuesday. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

The self-created child migrant crisis was bad enough for Donald Trump, but then he insulted a well-respected House Republican and refused to help leaders pass an immigration overhaul bill many feel is key to their re-election. Republicans reacted angrily, with one party veteran declaring this is Trump’s “Katrina moment.”

The president was riding high as Air Force One ferried him back from his summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un last week. Top aides planned a quiet Friday, wanting to ride the perceived momentum into the weekend. Then Trump, without the input of aides, walked out to the North Lawn to talk to Fox News anchor Steve Doocy and then other reporters.

Parkland Students Still Getting Pressed on ‘Genuine’ Activism
Deutch: ‘There is nothing more happening here than people who experienced something … and decided to do something about it’

Protesters gather in front of the Capitol before joining the student-led March for Our Lives on March 24. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Rain Valladares wiped tears from her eyes this week as she recounted the hours before a gunman invaded the halls of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, with an AR-15 and killed 17.

But she was in Washington to talk about the future of activism, not the past.

Poll: McSally Leads by Double Digits in Arizona Senate Primary
Republican representative opens up big lead against Ward, Arpaio

Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., leads in the GOP primary race for Sen. Jeff Flake’s senate seat. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Rep. Martha McSally has opened up a big lead in the Republican primary to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The poll shows McSally leading the race by a 14-point margin over her two Republican opponents, former Arizona state senator Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

Analysis: The Wrong Fight at the Wrong Time for the GOP
The more quality of life issues dominate the election cycle, the worse it will be for Republicans

The political consequences of President Donald Trump’s immigration policies could be bad news for his party in November, Rothenberg writes. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

You need to hand it to President Donald Trump, his entire administration and his party. It takes more than a little chutzpah to act in a way that seems callous to the concerns of children. First, it was gun control. Now it is immigration in general, and separating children from their parents in particular. If this is the way to winning the midterms, it’s hard to see how.

Republicans have talked for decades about crime, drugs, national security, traditional values, the dangers associated with big government and helping businesses produce economic growth.

Opinion: Back to the Future With Party ID
Spike in the generic ballot? Calm down and carry on

A voter casts his ballot in the Virginia primary at the Hillsboro Old Stone School in the Old Dominion State’s 10th District on June 12. More voters now identify as independents — not a positive trend for either party, Winston writes. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

It’s morning again in America. You grab your first cup of coffee, click to your favorite news site and are greeted by a new poll with a huge generic ballot spike in the congressional vote. What should your reaction be? Is it time to freak out, or calm down and assume the poll is an outlier?

The answer is neither. When a particular survey suddenly shows a significant shift in one direction or the other, political and media analysts and the public need to approach the data with caution. Before assuming there was a change in voter preference, we need to ask whether party identification in the survey also changed significantly, and if so, why. 

Jared Golden Wins Democratic Nod to Take On Bruce Poliquin
Ranked-choice voting put Marine vet over the top a week after primary

Maine Rep. Bruce Poliquin will face state House Assistant Majority Leader Jared Golden in the fall. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

More than a week after voters went to the polls, the Maine secretary of state on Wednesday night declared state House Assistant Majority Leader Jared Golden the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2nd District.

Golden will now challenge two-term Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin in November in a traditionally Democratic district that voted for President Donald Trump in 2016.

Grimm Compares Migrant Children’s Conditions to ‘Day Care’ Dropoff
Rep. Donovan, who Grimm is challenging for his old seat, also defended family separation policy

Former Rep. Michael Grimm, R-N.Y., compared the conditions for migrant children separated from their parents on the border to child day care. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Former Republican Rep. Michael G. Grimm of New York dismissed the cries of migrant children separated from their families on the border as equivalent to the weeping of kids being dropped off at day care.

“I can take you to any nursery and you’re going to hear the exact same things. As a mother leaves to go to work and has to leave her child at day care, you’re going to hear those exact same things,” Grimm said during an interview with local news media Tuesday.

Poll: Kim Jong Un Looks Stronger Than Trump After Summit
North Korean leader extracted more from the negotiations, respondents say

President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un participate in a signing ceremony during a meeting on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Kim Jong Un appears stronger than President Donald Trump in the wake of their historic summit, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll.

Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed a week after the meeting said Kim is a strong leader, up from roughly half in April.

An Ex-Con Looks for a Comeback in New York’s 11th District
But first, Michael Grimm needs to defeat Rep. Dan Donovan in the GOP primary

Former Rep. Michael G. Grimm, R-N.Y., is challenging Rep. Dan Donovan, R-N.Y., for his old seat in New York’s 11th District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

It’s been 90 years since someone with a criminal conviction was elected to the House. But one felon could jump-start his congressional comeback if he wins a Republican primary next week.

GOP voters in New York’s 11th District head to the polls Tuesday to choose between Rep. Dan Donovan and former Rep. Michael G. Grimm, who resigned his seat in early 2015 and served seven months in prison after pleading guilty to tax evasion.

Can Aruna Miller Upset the Largest Self-Funder in House Race History?
Maryland hopeful has many of the credentials that have boosted Democratic women this year

Maryland state Del. Aruna Miller greets voters at an early polling place in Gaithersburg, Md, on June 18. She stands behind the electioneering line which prevents a candidate from being too close to a voting site. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

GAITHERSBURG, Md. — If there’s one electoral trend from 2018 so far, it’s that Democratic women are winning primaries in House districts across the country.

But in Maryland, which has no women in its congressional delegation for the first time in more than 40 years, the most competitive woman running for the Democratic nomination in the open 6th District is at a big disadvantage.